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Pending Housing Sales Rise - Is The Slump Over?
June is a pivotal month for housing sales. Deluged with bad news that has already been released about June"s performance, will anyone give credence to a rise in month-to-month pending home sales? Pending sales of existing homes rose by 5 percent in June compared with May, found the National Association of Realtors in its monthly pending sales index. That"s the largest monthly gain in more than three years. Better yet, increases in pending sales were reported across the country, said the trade organization. But the news contradicts the other news announced by the NAR, only a week before -- that existing home sales fell for the fourth straight month in June. The 3.8 percent drop was the slowest pace in four and a half years, and altered the seasonally adjusted sales rate downward to about 5.75 million units. In another apparent contradiction, the median home price in June was up in June, by 0.3 percent. That"s a 3.3 percent increase in home prices over May 2006. So if people weren"t closing as many homes in June, why did they sign a greater number of contracts, which is what pending sales represent? The reason is sales were already trending upward, that"s why. Home sales are homes that have closed. Pending sales are those that have been put under contract, with closings set the following month or so. Nationally, the supply of unsold homes on hand in June dropped 4.2 percent to an 8.8-month supply. That"s still high, but that"s way down from the 15-year high set in May. Is it time to uncork the champagne? Cautiously optimistic, Lawrence Yun, NAR"s senior economist points out that the pending sales index while up, still remains 8.6 percent below year-ago levels. "However, it is too early to say if home sales have already passed bottom,” Yun explains. “Still, major declines in home sales are likely to have occurred already and further declines, if any, are likely to be modest given the accumulating pent-up demand.” June is typically the last big month for families with school-age children to change homes, so they can be settled in time for school to start in August. Families with children under the age of 18 account for 48 percent of homebuyers, says the NAR. For the first time in 2006, families with children are no longer the majority homebuying demographic. Singles, single parents, couples and co-residents without children are the majority of homebuyers today.Aussie expat tax commented:
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